http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,343671,00.html This was an interesting article to me. You may not agree, but I really don't think we are in a "recession"...........it's a lot of media hype which breeds hysteria, which then becomes a self-fullfilling prophecy. Bad news sells newspapers. Things aren't super fantatstic right now, but it's really not all THAT bad in my opinion. Yes, gas is higher now than ever, but obviously it's not slowing too many people down, I still see tons of SUV's on the road. I think twice about whether running an errand is really necessary, but if I need to go somewhere, I go. I guess it's too much to ask that the media as a whole include some good news along with the bad.
In commercial construction it has not slowed down much at all. We call subs for pricing and all we hear is "I'm too busy to price that job, sorry." It still takes 8-10 weeks to order toilet partitions which come from an American factory. So they are still backed up. It still takes 14 weeks to get an elevator that is made in an American factory. Lockers are made in America and take 6-8 weeks to get. My point is two fold. Things are still Made in American factories, and we are still busy. Hosing has slowed down as many masons, roofers etc who stopped giving us prices for the last 3-4 years, are now knocking on the doors looking for bank type commercial jobs.
Pretty good article, but, what they are missing is the "falling pyramid" effect. When a market, as large as the housing market, begins to faulter it's initial effect is only felt by those creating the product. That's all of us at the bottom of the pyramid. The construction market is feeling some serious pains right now. Projects are being fought over with prices that are under cost. Many companies are starting to play the "rob Peter to pay Paul" process by taking work under cost to keep the doors open. When Paul stops believing, "The checks in the mail.", the bottom will fall away from the pyramid and the rest will also feel the pain. I did hear one good thing last week. All the major Home Builders are going to raise the prices on new homes. So if you've been holding out and watching us starve so you can get a great deal on a home. Your about to buy us all dinner at Ruth Chris. :lol::lol:
I'm in the periphery of the construction industry too, one upside of this slowdown is it will separate the wheat from the chafe so to speak.
I found a good article about why America needs a recession... http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...-60CE-4868-BDB8-D0CFFE9851B0}&dist=TNMostRead
Take a look at the Bureau of Labors Statistics for the unemployment rates that start the FOX article and the graph and you will see a pretty clear difference and that that news source lied, it gave an accurate current rate of 4.8 but the average of 5.2 assigned to Bill Clinton was exaggerated by more than a percentage point. They start lying that early it isn't even worth while going beyond the second paragraph. http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?data_tool=latest_numbers&series_id=LNS14000000
Nationally in my travels I do see some softening but I would not necessarily see it tied to this Sub-Prime mess as much as it is China (competing against for jobs and resources). However with credit tightening up I see a recession coming if we are not in one already. A recession is one of those things where your are expected to be physically irresponsible in order to be patriotic, or at least that is the impression I am being given.
Let's back this truck up a second, I said it was an INTERESTING article, not that I believed every word in it. The media, in it's zeal to stir stuff up, makes things out to be worse than they really are is my real point. Yes, we are obviously having some economic difficulties, but I am not convinced we are truly in a "recession". Is everybody clear now? 8)
We're not in a real recession, but those pesky nosy-bodies in the UK are just dying for us to be in a depression: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/usa-2008-the-great-depression-803095.html The New York Times should do an article showing all their shabby butts with a headline saying: U.K. Big Teeth and Bad Breath 2008
They didn't lie. The average unemployment under Clinton was 5.2. However, it is really irresponsible to mention the average unemployment under Clinton as 5.2 without mentioning the fact that it was at 7.3% when he took office. While Clinton was in office, the unemployment rate was slowly and steadily lowered from 7.3 to 3.9% at the end of 2000. The average unemployment under Clinton is inflated because of the high unemployment levels when he assumed office. Unemployment rate as of Jan 1 of each year: 1988 - 5.1 1989 - 5.4 1990 - 5.4 1991 - 6.4 1992 - 7.3 1993 - 7.3 1994 - 6.6 1995 - 5.6 1996 - 5.6 1997 - 5.3 1998 - 4.6 1999 - 4.3 2000 - 4.0 2001 - 4.2 2002 - 5.7 2003 - 5.8 2004 - 5.7 2005 - 5.2 2006 - 4.7 2007 - 4.6 2008 - 5.1
Thanks, I see where the table I had did not go back far enough. Thanks again for looking into it further.
No problem. And even thought the article didn't lie, they certainly twisted the numbers to suit their needs. So, the heart of your rant still holds true.
