Discussion in 'Discussion Group' started by Webmaster, Mar 12, 2020.
OK…silly/serious question here…
How long do we keep this up? Even if we are vigilant, and limit social activities, sooner or later that will become unsustainable. I don’t see how this virus is going to disappear anytime soon. It is present in tropical climes, as well as in Australia, so the idea that warmer weather will somehow “make it go away” doesn’t seem to be happening. It seems like we are only delaying the inevitable here.
The most optimistic forecast for a vaccine is 1.5 years away. Are we really expected to forgo all social gatherings for that long? Schools and universities shut down? Sporting events cancelled? No cinema or live theater events? Political rallies and conventions shuttered? For almost two years? If not for that long, then what good are we really doing except dragging this out?
I would almost be willing to be intentionally infected with coronavirus, ride it out in isolation, get better, and not be a carrier afterward. I know it sounds crazy, but being sick and isolated for a week or two is almost preferable to the stress of not knowing when it might hit you, and who you might have unintentionally infected before you knew you were a carrier. If the government wants to spend $1.5 trillion dollars on this, why not use that money to pay healthy people double their usual wages to get sick, build up their immunity systems so it can resist the virus, and then they can resume their daily routines knowing that they are now immune? Rotate them on a planned schedule for minimum effect on society (health care givers, teachers, etc.), and give them some kind of certificate once they are healthy again.
Yeah, I know…too silly to be taken seriously, and I’m sure it would be a real lawyer-magnet if something went wrong, but for me personally….sure….hit me with it, and let me get it over with. I’d rather fight the Devil face-on than to keep running and hiding, hoping it will be a while before it eventually finds me.
The problem is the unknown. For example the thought that surviving the virus would make you immune is even questionable as there are cases of people being infected after recovery. That either indicates a rapid mutation rate or some other novel connection to this specific virus. Given that it is much more deadly than the seasonal flu this is the concern for the older population of the planet, since that is the group hit the hardest. That means you either fight a battle against not very good odds or you continue to run away in the hopes of survival.
If one believes the conspiracy theorists it is a diabolical plan to remove the retired population from the planet and make it less difficult for the working population that is having to support them.
While the preparations for a pandemic are difficult, the unprepared pandemic effects are even worse. Look at the worst case in the Spanish flu pandemic where tens of millions died, compared to the "better" cases of the Hong Kong flu or Asian flu where only a couple of million died that year
People can get the coronavirus more than once, experts warn — recovering does not necessarily make you immune
Feb 27, 2020, 2:51 PM
A coronavirus outbreak that started in China has sickened more than 82,000 people and killed more than 2,800. Cases have been recorded in 47 other countries.
Most patients seem to make full recoveries, but people who've recovered could still get the virus again in the future.
That already happened to a tour guide in Japan — she recovered from the coronavirus, then tested positive for it again three weeks later.
The antibodies that patients are producing so far don't necessarily last very long, one expert said.
People who have gotten the new coronavirus and recovered can get it again in the future, health authorities say — the body does not become immune after infection.
On Wednesday, Japanese authorities reported the first confirmed case of reinfection. A tour guide in Osaka first tested positive for the coronavirus in late January, then was discharged from the hospital three weeks ago after showing signs of recovery. But she returned to the hospital after developing a sore throat and chest pain and tested positive for the coronavirus once again.
Zhan Qingyuan, director of pneumonia prevention and treatment at the China-Japan Friendship Hospital, warned last month that this could happen.
"For those patients who have been cured, there is a likelihood of a relapse," Zhan said in a briefing on January 31. "The antibody will be generated; however, in certain individuals, the antibody cannot last that long."
Reinfections among patients in China have been reported as well.
In total, the coronavirus has infected more than 81,000 people, 95% of whom are in China. More than 2,770 have died. (For the latest case total, death toll, and travel information, see Business Insider's live updates here.)
A risk of reinfection
The coronavirus family includes the viruses that cause SARS, MERS, and the common cold. Most cause upper-respiratory infections.
When a virus enters a human body, it tries to attach to and take over host cells. In response, our immune systems produce antibodies: proteins that recognize and remove viruses.
That's how humans become immune to certain illnesses. Children that have contracted chickenpox, for example, are immune to the disease as adults. Vaccines are another way to develop immunity.
"With many infectious diseases, a person can develop immunity against a specific strain after exposure or infection," Amira Roess, a professor of Global Health and Epidemiology at George Mason University, told Business Insider. "Often, that person will not get sick again upon subsequent exposure to it."
But in the case of the new coronavirus, according to Zhan, doctors don't think the antibodies patients develop are strong or long-lasting enough to keep them from contracting the disease again.
"Once you have the infection, it could remain dormant and with minimal symptoms, and then you can get an exacerbation if it finds its way into the lungs," Philip Tierno, a professor at the NYU School of Medicine, told Reuters.
Coronavirus cases around the world
Coronavirus cases have been reported in 47 countries beyond China.
The World Health Organization declared the coronavirus outbreak a global health emergency last month, but does not yet consider it a pandemic.
Public-health experts are urging the public — especially anyone who travels — to wash hands frequently, avoid touching one's face, and stay away from anyone who appears sick.
Yeah, Wayne, I know...I posted my "suggestion" out of frustration. I was scheduled to fly up to Schaumburg, Illinois next week for some intensive technical orientation on a new public safety communications system I'm very eager to see firsthand, now in the staging process. Instead, I'm stuck here in VA for the foreseeable future. I hate losing this opportunity (as well as the generous per diem check I have to give back ), so I let my cognitive standards slip a bit on that last post.
Thanks for reminding me that it "isn't all about me" right now. I probably shouldn't have posted that, but I'm far from perfect.
Part of it is the differences this virus exhibits from others. It does not seem to impact the very young, which is a significant difference, and it does not seem to create the long lasting immunity from the antibodies, which is yet another significant difference. The only similarity is that it is more deadly to the other end of the spectrum than some of the other pandemics, which means you would be likely to not survive the encounter. We would hate to lose you.
I am still trying to determine if my associates in Wuhan are still among the living as there has been no contact since the first of the year. They are older and thus possible casualties. In my attempt to get information I am in contact with people who can pass information that those in China cannot easily pass on. As bad as the news has made the situation sound, those individuals that have been in contact with the folks here in the US say their experiences are far worse than the news indicated. I know that anecdotal information is not great, but these are the more wealthy class of Chinese and if they are having a worse time than is indicated the truth is probably worse for those "average" Chinese. As everywhere, there are questions about the accuracy of the information coming from the government there, from unreported deaths to mis-attributed deaths to hide the real impact. I hope these are wrong but there are a lot of questions and few good answers,
I’ve read a bunch of notes on coronavirus from clinicians sharing observed data as well as from attendees at the (quite bleak) UCSF panel on coronavirus. A few key takeaways:
1. If you’re exposed to COVID, you’re likely to see symptoms in about 2-9 days, with median of 5 days.
2:55 AM · Mar 13, 2020 from Ladera Heights, CA·Twitter for iPhone
2. The common symptoms are acute respiratory distress and fever, often high, which may be intermittent but can be persistent and last over 10 days.
3. Breakdown of cases: About 80% of those who contract COVID only get mildly ill; 14% get hospital-ill, 6-8% critically ill. The mortality rate seems to be between 1-3%, but that needs to be adjusted for age. Mortality is 10-15% over 80, and drops lower for younger cohorts.
4. The bulk of those who fall ill are aged 40-55, with 50 being the median. But being young and healthy (zero medical problems) does NOT rule out serious illness or death; it may just delay the time course to developing significant respiratory illness by about a week or longer.
5. Findings confirm that COVID-19 is spread simply through breathing, even without coughing. It seems unlikely that contact with contaminated surfaces is a primary means of spread: "Don't forget about hand washing, but if you don't want to get infected, you can't be in crowds.”
6. The virus spreads by air and in droplets (sneezing and coughing), but also via fecal-oral transmission. This is where hand washing with soap is key. And try to eat only cooked foods if you didn’t prepare them yourself.
7. COVID likely originated in bats. But for those sharing rumors that COVID came from Chinese people eating them, researchers now believe it went from bats to another animal species before jumping to humans, and that fecal-oral transmission was the likely vector. WASH YOUR HANDS.
8. There are no real treatments for COVID yet. Remdesvir has shown signs of reducing mortality but it is in still in tests, is in short supply and only available under restriction. Steroids, a common treatment for respiratory illness, may make things worse.
9. The terminal phase of COVID is acute respiratory distress, treated by putting patients on a ventilator. We have 160K ventilators in the US. About 1M will need ventilators. Half will die in the first week; survivors stay on for 4 weeks. “We don’t have enough ventilators.”
10. This graphic is scary. Italy is already overwhelmed. Many countries are just days behind Italy on the case curve. The US is actually breaking the curve—because of the Trump admin’s mismanagement of the situation.
11. 40-70% of the US is likely to get the virus. Around 150 million is the UCSF estimate, with a 1% rate of mortality. Which means 1.5 million Americans will likely die of this disease in the next 12-18 months. To put this in context: In 2019, 606,880 Americans died of cancer.
12. We are “past containment” at this point, experts say. The massive errors by this administration early on make it impossible to stop the spread—we can only slow it so healthcare can catch up. And no matter what anyone says: We won’t have a vaccine for at least 12 months.
Original sources here. UCSF panelists have clarified the 150M infected projection is not destiny and we CAN mitigate it. Let’s hope.
My older son had an incident where he was very I'll a couple of weeks ago. He tested negative for the flu but was in far worse condition than with any case of the seasonal flu and this was just after travelling out of state. He believes his symptoms better fit the Covid19 since it was not the flu, but since he did not fit the criteria they would not test him. That lack of testing is a critical failure in knowing how widespread the coverage may be for the Covid19.
It’s all good Bob. This is no worse than swine flu,,
The major difference with this is access to social media.
Social media is a detriment to society for the most part. It has blown this up to epic proportions.
Another case in point with social media was the protesting earlier in the week in Raleigh because of the idiot running around with a gun and social media playing it off as someone unarmed getting shot in the back. Absolutely ridiculous. Social media is destroying too much of society in my good for nothing opinion.
I realize you folks will just blame this on someone else, but this came from the CDC, grated it is a worse case scenario (I got this from the Drudge Report) . . .
The C.D.C.’s scenarios were depicted in terms of percentages of the population. Translated into absolute numbers by independent experts using simple models of how viruses spread, the worst-case figures would be staggering if no actions were taken to slow transmission.
Between 160 million and 214 million people in the U.S. could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to one projection. That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die.
CDC NIGHTMARE SCENARIO: 1.7 MILLION DEATHS...
Social media. It’s a detriment to society and everyone contributes to it.
The quality of life has taken a big hit due to social media.
I realize there is some good that comes from social media but it gets smashed by all the bad that comes from social media. It’s a cancer to society and it’s not going away.
Hughey. What are you trying to say or what point are you attempting to make with your first line??
I mean seriously,,,
“ I realize you folks will just blame someone else”.
Not a huge fan of Social Media (Outside of Johnston County Today) but legitimate media can save Millions of LIves.
Remember when all the folks freaked out about the calendar flipping from December 31, 1999 to January 1, 2000? Granted some people predicted software armageddon, fortunately although a lot of people stated it was an overreaction and that it was all overblown hype, enough people took it seriously enough that we didn't have a disaster. I audited one chemical company in January 2000 and unfortunately they did not take the warnings seriously enough to make sure their "Maintenance software" was ready. Fortunately they did not blow up, but they did have a shutdown few a few days.
In the political pit we had an individual repeating conspiracy theories, this was one of the individuals that comment was aimed at.
Why bring it over here?? Too me??
"This is no worse than swine flu . . ."
It’s not a conspiracy theory.
Actually it is. The Covid19 mortality rate estimates are at least 50 times greater than the Swine flu.
So that is where you got your fake data on the Swine flu being just as bad.
Not if your info came from social media and that would make it making it seem falsely less significant.
Like the Trump tweets where the experts are forbidden to make comments? I can agree on that.
Separate names with a comma.